Experts told about the risks for the ruble in August
Risks for the ruble in the traditionally busy for the Russian market in August, but they are hardly implemented at this time, however, the pressures on the ruble exchange rate in the next month is dominated by, according to respondents RIA Novosti experts.
Rates of major reserve currencies, according to them, the end of August did not depart significantly from current levels.
In August 2019, the dollar rose almost 5%, 2018 8% 2015 4% 2014 - almost 4%. In August 1998, the jump in the dollar was 58% to 9.95 USD, and it was only the beginning of the movement.
August will be remembered the Russians as the month of the weakening of the rouble when the currency of the Russian Federation became the object of sales, says the head of analytical Department of Bank "Zenith" Vladimir Evstifeev. However, peculiar to this period the weakening of the Russian currency have one thing in common – reducing activity in financial markets, which can lead to a substantial movement in the price of "thin" market, he added.
"Do not forget geopolitical risks. The advantage of a democratic candidate in the presidential race, the US exacerbates sanctions rhetoric. Joe Biden have repeatedly declared intentions to carry out against Russia's aggressive foreign policy, so his coming to power could lead to new sanctions against Russia", - said Evstifeev.
The main risks for the ruble are concentrated in the region of the possible new sanctions in the dynamics of energy prices (in the case of a strong reduction of quotations), also says the head of analysis of financial institutions RIA Rating Andrew Manko. "However, according to our estimates, it is likely that these risks are not implemented in the current August," he added.
A potential threat is a new wave of the pandemic coronavirus, which can start in Europe, says head of Department of trading operations on the Russian stock market IR "freedom Finance" George Vashchenko.
"If it starts, the greatest drop in prices is expected in the primary sector and transport. However, there is no evidence that the economy will suffer even in the case of the second wave. The authorities of the European countries and the USA brought some experience from the first wave, and will do everything possible to impact on the economy was not painful. In addition, looming progress in the treatment and prevention of the disease, so the repetition of the lockdown in Europe and the collapse of prices for raw materials I do not expect", - he concluded.
Meanwhile, in August, with a high probability Russia will face another deterioration of the balance of payments, - considers the Director of analytical Department IK "Region" Valery Weisberg. Partial recovery coronavirus restrictions may lead to stagnation or even decline in global oil demand – just at the time when OPEC will increase oil production in addition to the ongoing increase in production in the United States, he says.
"In this situation, oil prices can correct and lead to the decline of income from Russian exports. The opening of the tourist areas will worsen the balance of exports and imports of services. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance will significantly reduce, and possibly even stop the sale of foreign currency from the Fund," says Weisberg about the factors of pressure on the ruble.
The easing cycle of monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is nearing completion, the residents gradually took profits on OFZs and the ruble is a negative signal, adds Evstifeev. In addition, the level of ruble rates are not as attractive to foreign investors after a cycle of reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, he adds.
This situation favors the development of the downward trend on the ruble, which began in June, with the aim of fixing the rate in the range of 73-74 rubles per dollar, and the Euro - in the range of 86-87 rubles, estimated Weisberg.
Most likely in August, the range 71 to 75 rubles per dollar, said Evstifeev.
The demand for currency in August, grow up, and the ruble, maybe a few more to loose, but by the end of summer he will return to the levels of the end of July, estimates Manko. The course will complete the last month of summer in the range of 72-73 ruble per dollar, and the Euro will cost more 84 rubles, he said.
The baseline scenario is a local maxima in the first half of August at the level of 73-74 rubles per dollar and then attempt to strengthen the Russian currency to the level of 70 rubles, assessed the head of Department of investment consultation IK "Veles the capital" Victor Shastin.