°
Newark

The main events in the world are not where we think

What was the periphery of global politics, rapidly turns out to be its epicenter — and, to keep pace with this reality, have to remember the names such as Chabahar (and many others). Already not tomorrow, but today's world is built, for example around complex explanation of the relationship between China, India and Iran (Chabahar and just in Iran). Or, say, around a globally explosive history of dam on the Nile, to begin changing relationship between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, but then and other States. And do not say that you do not understand and uninteresting, because our future life will depend on all these Dabakarov and Nilov, whether you like it or not.

So Iran lost patience, threw out India from the grandiose project on construction of communications from the port of Chabahar in the Indian ocean to Afghanistan and beyond in Central Asia, Russia and other deep areas of Eurasia. Indian politicians wistfully talking about "lost opportunities" and, in fact, the devaluation of the greatest achievements of Delhi on the world stage in recent years.

Of course, if India itself had abandoned the project, it would look more decent. But in reality, it was this: in 2003, Delhi and Tehran signed an agreement that the Indians involved in the construction of the port in Chabahar (and it was), and then move to the main event to the rail on the North-East, that is, the access of its goods to Central Asia and further, and even bypass the unpleasant India Pakistan. In fact, a breakthrough in its future development strategy.

But then a new reality has emerged: the policy of the present Cabinet headed by Narendra modi at the careful balancing between the global centers of power. In this case, between the US and China. To be friends with Iran is to have a big problem with the United States. As a result, in Delhi, on the one hand, painfully managed to get myself Americans have the right to continue Calahari project, on the other — had to abandon the purchase of Iranian oil... well, things were complicated and subtle. Finally, in 2016, modi visited Tehran, signing an agreement with Iran and Afghanistan on the same rail, and then — silence. Pause. Choosing the right time to continue the course. And Iran got tired of waiting, he said that will build everything on their own, the money and opportunities are. Then why Indians participated in the construction of the port?

As for "their strength": all regional political circles recall that the marked strength appeared after the signing of the Iran program for 25 years and $ 400 billion. With China, who else. About this program a lot of States, including reports about the construction in the same Chabahar base of the Iranian Navy, joint development of weapons... but the military aspect of the Alliance is more interested American observers. They predict all sorts of retaliatory measures from Washington because of questionable positions is the 5th US fleet in the Indian ocean base of Diego Garcia.

But the economic side of relations between Iran and China is impressive, including the one railway fit into the picture very well.

And here if to speak about "balancing" India is becoming particularly noticeable the disastrous state of its relations with China. This summer once again faced the troops of the two countries on their disputed border in the Himalayas, once again, negotiations were held and began with the divorce of forces. Dry residue: the surge of anti-Chinese feelings in the Indian political circles, the sanctions against Chinese goods and services. Even if we assume everything happened by accident and not a provocation, it turns out that India again lost a lot.

China has long been the main exporter to this country, and Beijing estimates — potentially the main hope for its future development. This hope is undermined and conflict, and reluctance of India to participate in the Chinese plans for the development of economy and infrastructure in Eurasia (the "Belt and road"). By the way, the agreement of Beijing with Iran is also part of this project.

As a result, Chinese investments are getting country-rivals (Pakistan), the country's defectors of the "Indian" world in "Chinese" (Nepal and other), and now also in Iran. India is in isolation, without such as China, material and other resources to create your own system of regional partnerships. Perhaps it would be advantageous to fit into the Chinese system and to make it shared but here's the story Caboara — it shows that the reality is much worse.

Now let's see what in this complex plot no. There is no West as a key and not even a very key player. About Europe and say nothing, but even the United States — whether they have a real impact on the processes? Someone in America can be, and it seems that its terrible confrontation with China in the world, there is no plot, and Iran, and even more so in the balance, the growth of its influence in the respective parts of Asia that's about to get a powerful response. In any case, we see that WA binds all the forces of India, but...

But how does a confrontation with the United States prevented China to rapidly build and already this year a system of alliances around India — Pakistan, Iran, Nepal and others? How the threat of Washington to prevent Iran successfully evolve, finding the money to do it — as the, and Chinese? By the way, Beijing in the weeks greatly helped with money and even Brazil, and not only her.

And the United States, Imitation of the formidable power of policy which were doing may be making life difficult for unaccustomed to such a situation Europeans. But fewer hurt new players on the world stage. Another thing is that few among these "new powers" have learned to do without the States at all, simply ignore them.