Trump 100 days before the election, again get used to the image of the outsider
The President of the United States Donald trump 100 days before the elections, which will be held on November 3, is very far behind his rival, Democrat Joe Biden in the polls. Voters dissatisfied with the policy of trump anti-coronavirus and protests. Even the advantage of a trump before Biden in donations to the campaign is completely evaporated. But trump won the last elections to the status of absolute outsider and so nobody would think to write him off now.
Biden now advantage more than the Hillary Clinton four years ago. According to the average indicator surveys of the site FiveThirtyEight, in March, Democrat Biden was ahead of the Republican trump an average of 3 percentage points, now eight points. In a two-stage system of American elections, however, is not the amount of votes of electors, and the electors of the state at the system of "winner in the state takes all the electors". In 2016, trump received more than 2 million votes less than Clinton, but won in States such as Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, often with a minimum gap in the popular vote. Now Biden, on average, according to RealClearPolitics, ahead of trump in popularity in all those States. His "in the pocket" of about 222 115 electors against trump (to win you need 270), clarifies the portal.
However, a sudden pandemic of coronavirus, a historic decline and reverse the upward leap of us GDP, an unpredictable wave of protests suggests that surprises in 2020 may still far from over.
Trump, apparently, understands that the situation is not in his favor, making uncharacteristic concessions to public opinion. He verbally supported the peaceful protests against racism and police abuse that broke out after the death by police of an African-American George Floyd. Trump also began to listen to the words of doctors and even in a couple of cases appeared in public in a mask, boasting that the mask looks better than the heroes of westerns. Finally, he advised the residents to wear masks in public places and even cancelled scheduled for August head to the Republican national Convention in Florida because of the coronavirus.
But it is unlikely that any circumstances will force trump to stop believing your instincts because those instincts are often counterintuitive, brought him to power. He branded the demonstrators as supporters of the riots and threatened to enter the security services in the city, where unrest is still going on, despite the objections of the local authorities. One and a half months earlier, the demonstrators defended the White house. It led only to the fact that the protests were largely against the trump demands his resignation is a routine slogan of the protesters.
Similarly, inconsistent signals trump coronavirus. The optimistic message of March-April on the background of the most severe quarantine restrictions drowned in petty strife trump with the press. In July, trump suddenly changed his tone to a more somber, stating that the epidemic could get worse. However, sanitary regulator CDC, which depends on the policy of the Executive, made recommendations for the opening of schools, though it is clear that schools in the fall hardly appears in any significant number of States.
Trump teases Biden's "sleepy Joe" for blunders and inaccuracies, as well as openly hinted that 77-year-old Biden is already not in peak mental shape. But the 74-year-old trump often misses the mark with his statements, as he boasted that was an intellectual test, which actually should not cause any difficulties in adults without developmental disabilities. As in previous elections, the tongue of the trump is his own worst enemy, and where he will lead the President to November, is anyone's guess.
But do not forget that trump has always been controversial and often hated, never hesitated to say what he thinks, and in General for four years no more was to be like a politician that would like to see in the presidential chair fellow Democrats in the press. But trump won in 2016, not because he rallied an absolute majority, but because they managed to put together a majority Alliance of qualified - one that helps to win in a single critical States. And all of his current outbursts against the protests or for the early lifting of restrictions on coronavirus fit into the demands of the conservatives, has already supported him in the past. So maybe trump's strategy is not so irrational as it seems.
In addition, as the head of the Executive branch trump has the leverage to ensure that together with the Congress to help the us economy to survive in the fight against coronavirus. To support the economy and citizens have already been allocated an astronomical sum - about $ 3 trillion, and Congress discusses a new support package. How would trump nor protested against the "socialists" and "Communists" of the Democratic party that was unthinkable just six months ago, the idea of distributing money to the population became a reality it was when trump, and the trump has insisted that the checks received by each American family, signed his name. Polls show that the economy is most voters are willing to trust Trump more than Biden, though in other respects Biden usually gets incumbent.
As in previous elections, Trump has nothing to lose and chaos is his element, warns political columnist Mike Goodwin.
"Trump, trailing in almost all national polls, clearly sees the opportunity to find political gold in chaos. Using the expression of Richard Nixon from the campaign of 1968, the President declared himself the candidate of "law and order" and declares that relies on "the silent majority". Polls that does not show, but if things go the same until the fall, the President is likely to benefit from it," writes Goodwin in the column for the New York Post.