The experts gave their forecast of interest rates on deposits by year-end
Russian banks this year will continue to reduce interest rates on ruble deposits by the end of the year the average maximum rate will fall to 4% or even lower, expect to be interviewed by RIA Novosti experts and credit institutions.
Average maximum rate on deposits of ten Russian banks attracting the largest volume of deposits of physical persons in rubles, reduced from the beginning of the year. In early January she was 5.93%, and up to the second decade of July fell to a record low of 4.55%. This is largely due to the reduction of the key rate, which is currently at a historic low of 4.5%.
The lowest average rate waiting for the head of rating service of NRA Sergey Grishunin, he predicted, it can move in the direction of 3% per annum. This significant movement of return of deposits down will be due to the presence of some large players deposits with interest rates below 4% and that in extremely low interest margins, banks will seek to increase it, reducing the cost of funding, he explained. According to the forecast of the Deputy head of the retail block Minbank Roman Zhukov, the average maximum yield of ruble deposits at the end of the year will not exceed 3.5%.
The economist "BCS Premier" Anton Pokatovich indicates that in the next two to three months of rates on ruble deposits will fall to levels of 4.1 to 4.4%. "On a more distant horizon to the end of this year, Deposit rates may fall to levels of 3.5-3.8% in case if the Central Bank will retain the case for further easing of monetary conditions," he added. The maximum average yield of deposits by the end of the year may be less than 4% if the Bank of Russia will continue the reduction of the key rate, agrees managing Director Absolut Bank Anton Pavlov.
"Following the reduction of the key rate, the Deposit rates will also be adjusted downward. By the end of the year we are likely to see the average rate on ruble deposits at 4% per annum," - he expects the Director of the Department of financial markets operations of the Bank "Russian standard" Maksym Tymoshenko.
Director of retail products of Bank "House.Of the Russian Federation" Evgeny Shitikov predicts the decline of the average maximum rate is still 0.3-0.6 percentage points - to 4%. VTB hoping for average maximum rate of about 4%. The most optimistic forecast of the Russian agricultural Bank and Moscow credit Bank expects that the average yield falls below 4% per annum.
The head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina in June, said the Bank of Russia expects the rates on deposits in the country will remain above inflation, but the yield on long-term deposits will be more attractive than short term.