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Experts predict the development of US-Cuban relations

Diplomatic relations between the USA and Cuba performed Tuesday to five years — they were restored in 2015 the US President Barack Obama. Then it seemed to many that Washington and Havana are at the dawn of a new era of relations. However, five years later, the trade embargo against Cuba, Congress has continued to act, and the administration of Donald trump has withdrawn a large part of the measures aimed at improving relations — for example, to limit the flights to Cuba. RIA Novosti interviewed experts in the USA believe that when the trump of relations between the US and Cuba will not improve, though it is quite possible, if elected President, Democrat Joe Biden.

"I don't think it is possible a significant improvement in US-Cuban relations in the second term of the administration of the trump. President trump has reversed many of the Executive orders of Obama and stepped up the rhetoric against the Cuban government. His policies seem directed mainly to support the conservative electorate Cuban-Americans in Florida," said RIA Novosti Jorge Duany, Director of the Institute for the study of Cuba at Florida International University.

Agree with him the political scientist Erica de La Garza, the founder of the Initiative for the study of Latin America at the Baker Institute (rice University, TX).

"The second administration of the trump will not improve relations with Cuba. President trump showed that he was profoundly indifferent to foreign policy in the region in General and public diplomacy, and a potential second term does not differ. His policy against Cuba out of cold war and serve the interests of Cubans in "Little Havana" in Florida, not the Cuban people on the island or the commercial interests of the United States," - said de La Garza.

"The situation (in relations with the trump - ed.) will only worsen unless fundamental changes in the regime in Havana," - said in turn Deputy Director of the Institute for the study of Cuba Sebastian Arcos.

Political Duany reminded that Biden has promised to "largely" back to the policies of Obama, to abandon the isolation of Cuba and support the embargo on trade and travel. "However, Biden said he would maintain sanctions against Cuba because of the support of the government (Nicholas - ed.) Maduro in Venezuela, he also insisted that the Cubans "had adhered to the obligations that wanted to take over" during the Obama administration," he said Duany.

According to him, it is unclear what exactly will make the administration of the Biden for keeping other stated policy objectives in relation to Cuba such as democracy promotion, and what sanctions will remain to put pressure on Cuba for Venezuela.

At this Deputy head of the Cuban research Institute Sebastian Arcos believes that US policy has matured the party split against Cuba.

"Republicans and Democrats has never been so far apart on the question of US policy towards Cuba... it is Possible to assume that short-term survival of the Cuban regime depends on the upcoming elections in the United States," said Arcos.

Expert on Latin America, Fernando Capablanca, managing Director of consulting company Whitecap Consulting Group LLC, drew attention to the fact that a hypothetical Biden administration will have to deal with the opposition in the Senate on the issue of improving relations. "There are many influential senators, whose views will probably prevail even under the new administration," - said Capablanca.

Political scientist Erica de La Garza reminded that Biden will be a lot of problems and in addition Cuba.

"Biden may face enormous challenges in the country, which will require his immediate attention, and also the need to improve more important relationship in the international arena, and Cuba may be far down the list," said de La Garza.

The political scientist mark Jones, head of Latin American studies at rice University, called "almost a foregone conclusion" the return of the measures for rapprochement and stronger diplomatic relations if elected Biden.

"The administration, Biden has the potential to go much further than when he went in the Obama administration, to tying more durable and more flexible connections with Cuba, given the growing strength of the progressive wing of the Democratic party, which does not consider communism as negatively as Democrats from the establishment, not to mention the Republicans," said Jones.