Experts said the impact on the ruble exchange rate reduction of the key rate
Expected on 24 July, the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank will have little impact on the exchange rate, however, the comments of the regulator on the prospects for monetary policy will be the main reference point for exchange rate dynamics, according to respondents RIA Novosti experts.
At the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia July 24, we expect another reduction of the key rate from the current 4.5% per annum, to which the indicator came last June - a meeting of the Board of Directors. Then the rate was reduced from 1 percentage point for the first time in five years to a historic low.
After the speech of the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina at the meeting of the Council for financial market development at the Federation Council doubt that the regulator will again lower its key interest rate almost gone, says the Director of analytical Department IK "Region" Valery Weisberg. "I believe that the reduction will be 50 basis points (to 4% per annum), but to market such an outcome is not the baseline scenario", - he added.
The market in General is set up for a rate cut at the July meeting up to 4-4. 25% per annum, and recent comments from the Bank of Russia, these expectations are generally confirmed, also says the head of the center of development strategies of Gazprombank Yegor Susin.
The prevailing forecasts of reduction of the key rate of the Bank of Russia broadcast market as a signal to further reduce evaluation inflation and investment risks in Russia, says the analyst of management of trading operations on the Russian stock market of the company "freedom Finance" Alexander Osin. Accordingly, this has a positive effect on the price of OFZs and the ruble, the analyst adds.
However, of greater importance for the dynamics course have a comments of the Central Bank and the future prospects of interest-rate policy, says Susin.
"We have already seen in June, which in itself mitigate the base rate may not have significant impact neither on the ruble: very important comments of the regulator as well," says Weisberg.
"Are there any signals for further declines, or maybe we'll see a break in the cycle of reducing interest rates. Now in the scenario of lower Central Bank key interest rate below 4% per annum, few believe," says Susin.
In particular, the market prevails the opinion that Russia is very close or is already in the bottom of the easing cycle and after 12 months or so the rate may even begin to grow, adds Weisberg.
Given the decline to the end of the year the key interest rate, yield on Bank debt and credit markets, the fair rate of the dollar is 60 rubles, estimated Osin. As assumptions for this assessment selected the achievement of oil prices, the forecast level of 55 dollars per barrel, following the deal, OPEC 2.0. Also assumed stimulate economic measures, primarily in the United States, China and Japan.
However, market fluctuations are self-reinforcing, and for this assessment it is necessary to add the range of possible variations of 3-5% relative to the baseline assessment concluded Osin.