A new partition of Poland. This time Russia won't be there
It was the longest and the most unpredictable, the most odious, the most dirty election. And not the fact that they ended.
We are talking about suffering in the Polish presidential elections, which was to be held in may. Recall, if they were held in the period specified in law, the incumbent President Andrzej Duda would have had all chances to win in the first round, because, according to surveys, his rating then exceeds 60 percent. That is why the liberal opposition with the active support of Western politicians and media have done their utmost to disrupt the vote under the pretext of a pandemic. And they succeeded.
The postponement of elections in the middle of summer was, in fact, a kind of "third round" (to draw an analogy with the "orange Maidan" of 2004 in Ukraine), not stipulated by the Constitution of the country. In the eyes of some of his supporters Duda "blown away", gave up the slack, but because his rating after the abolition of the may vote has collapsed initially, almost doubled. The opposition seized the moment and took from the election was a failure the creature, which tried to oppose the Duda spring, the former Marshal of the Sejm of the Malgorzata Kidawa Blansko. Instead it put forward a much more charismatic mayor of Warsaw for Rafal Trzaskowski, which enjoyed considerable support not only in the capital but also in the Western, more "Evropeisky" regions of Poland, as well as among young people.
In the first round Duda seems to have secured a fairly comfortable lead from the main competitor in 13%, however, until election day, the polls showed that they are neck and neck, with actually equal performance. In fact, since the elections ended. Immediately after the polls closed announced the results of the exit poll: incumbent President won with a margin of just 0.8%. The final score was a little more in favor of Duda: for 51.2% vs. 48.8% in Trzaskowski.
Perhaps, for the unity of Poland this is the result of the most risky. During more than an emotional campaign, both camps have expressed to each other a lot of insults, suspicions and accusations. With such a minimal separation of the incumbent from the rival is very easy to fan doubts about the legitimacy of his victory, given the dirty tricks that were used during the campaign. In fact, the proponents Trzaskowski immediately began to do.
Polish society is split by geography: the seven Eastern provinces voted for the incumbent President, nine West for his opponent. There is a sharp generational stratification. So, for Dudu voted 62% of voters over 60 years of age, and Trzaskowski — 64% of young people under 29 years old. The current head of state was supported by the vast majority of Patriarchal Polish countryside, his opponent is a large city, tending to Western Europe.
Interesting moment: the main pop theme, paradoxical as it may sound to those who believed Poland traditionalist Catholic power, was the discussion of LGBT rights and same-sex unions. As elections approach, Duda increased his rhetoric directed against gays, and even agreed to the fact that "the LGBT ideology is more destructive than communism," which caused a very angry reaction in the West.
It should be noted, in the campaign repeatedly interfered and European structures that, with the increasing conservative rhetoric Duda and increased the sharpness of their statements, clearly podygryvanii opponent of the President. For example, when the authorities of the regions controlled by the ruling party, tried to declare himself the zones, "free LGBT", the European Commission immediately hit where it hurts most poles: threatened that it would deprive funding from the local government. So if someone accused of meddling in Polish elections, this time it is unlikely that Russia.
In fact, on the eve of the second round already went to Germany. The Polish foreign Ministry has summoned the German chargé d'affaires after the article in Die Welt, openly called for the poles to vote for Trzaskowski. Oil poured into the fire of the Polish tabloid Fakt, which accused him in covering up a pedophile. It has also added to anti-German rhetoric in the campaign the head of power, which immediately pointed to the German owners of the newspaper and accused Germany that she wants to choose the Polish President.
The team of Duda, besieged on all sides by Brussels and the liberal media of Europe, eventually went on the course that seems absolutely wild for the XXI century. Decided to play the card of anti-Semitism. Made it public Polish TV channel TVP, which was actually mediastrom President (97% of news about Him was positive, while three percent of neutral subjects, and 87% of reported Trzaskowski was negative, with 13% neutral).
This channel set Trzaskowski stumped by the question of whether he is going to pay compensation to the Jews for the Holocaust in Poland. And then regularly clocked the thesis that the failure of the opposition candidate to discuss the matter — the manifestation of his collusion with some behind the scenes "Jewish organizations", sometimes with direct reference to George Soros. The move so shocked the Western and Israeli media, which appears to be Warsaw will have a long time to explain about such an original for a modern European state of the election technologies.
In General, claims from Brussels and campaigns Duda in the course of this fierce struggle has amassed a huge amount. And without that difficult relations in recent years certainly will not be better after such a heated exchange of views. Thus, the main result of such a dirty election 2020 was the worsening political division of Poland and a sharp deterioration in its relations with its European allies.
Warsaw would cost to fix the fact that Russia has got nothing to do with it.