Experts have told that worse for the ruble: the risks of sanctions or COVID
Russia for several years already more or less adapted to the sanctions, therefore, the risks of a second wave of coronavirus and new quarantine measures are more dangerous to the ruble than the possible new Western sanctions against Russia, believe polled by RIA Novosti experts.
Currently the exchange rate is affected by several factors: oil prices, output non-residents of the OFZ, coronavirus and possible sanctions because of the "Nord stream -2", says head of personal brokerage services "BCS" Sergei Kuchin.
If to choose between two risks (sanctions and virus), for the ruble, more significant still, the epidemic, says the analyst of the company "freedom Finance" Valery Yemelyanov. The current drop in the Russian currency (from the beginning of the year the ruble lost one-eighth of its value) more than 90% due to the decline in oil prices, which, in turn, is associated with the collapse in global demand due to quarantine measures against the background of the pandemic, he appreciates.
If we consider the scenario that introduced the promised new sanctions, but the epidemic has gone on recession, the dollar is unlikely to consolidate above 73 rubles, the expert believes. "Unless, of course, Russia will respond asymmetrically in the style of frozen dollar accounts or refusing to repay foreign currency debt. In this scenario (extremely unlikely), the dollar could easily go for 90 rubles and above," said Emelyanov.
Coronavirus risks - a broader problem than the sanctions that influence prices and volume of exports to the Russian budget, and the financial markets, considers the Director of analytical Department IK "Region" Valery Weisberg. "Therefore, comparing these two factors, I consider that unrelenting pandemic is much more dangerous for the stability of the ruble", - he added.
"However, the negative impact of coronavirus is already partly in price, and we do not expect tough new quarantine restrictions, as it was in the spring of 2020," - gives an optimistic forecast for the chief of the division of personalized brokerage services "BCS" Sergei Kuchin.
The introduction of new sanctions against companies involved in the project "Northern stream-2" or cooperating with it, is quite real, says Kuching from the company "BCS". But such actions will cause tensions in relations between Moscow and Washington, but the EU and the U.S., German politicians openly criticize the Americans for plans to introduce these sanctions and threatening retaliatory measures, he says.
However, even in the case of their introduction, the impact of new sanctions on the project "Nord stream-2" will be zero, said Emelyanov of "freedom Finance". Russia in fact already completes it myself, but to deny Germany use of the pipeline is impossible in principle, he explained.
Thus in terms of the relationship of sanctions and coronaviruses there is an interesting point. The more will be occupied by Western countries struggle with the coronavirus, the less they will have resources available to initiate new sanctions against Russia. Such a connection can be traced, not only in Russia, Emelyanov says of "freedom Finance".
"After amplification of the pandemic, the US administration dramatically slowed down with pressure on China and even removed a part of restrictions on cooperation. Plus it is worth considering the factor of the campaign. American voters are now much more concerned about the lack of jobs, than events in Russia or somewhere else. And politicians in both parties act out the agenda, which is more important to the electorate," he concluded.