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Ashburn

"Do not give Ukraine the money, until she gives up"

The former head of the national Bank of Ukraine Valeria Gontareva, now living in London, urged the IMF to give Ukraine the money as long as the head of the NBU is appointed "the man who will defend the reforms." That is absolutely obedient to the IMF.

This Gontareva has responded to the resignation of his protege and successor, Jacob Smoliy, which sent it to the Verkhovna Rada. Votes gained by a large margin — 286, while 226 votes required, despite the lack of votes from the "arasatchi" part of the "Servant of the people".

Demarche Yakov Smoliy had obvious political overtones and must have been agreed with Western curators. It is worth noting that incredible disapproval of the NBU in society, in significant part, of the business community, MPs and the presidential entourage multiplied by the government's desire to put in position his man, made the dismissal inevitable. However, this does not mean that "the person" is at least relatively independent from the West and will be able to change the monetary policy of the Central Bank. Much more likely that it's all over the steam release and coordination with the IMF, destination of the next Pound, but getting access to the earnings for the current leaders of Ukraine.

For consistency of application Smoliy resignation from Western curators indicate several factors.

First, immediately after applying all of the "Soros-mafia" in Ukraine unanimously supported Smoliy and burst out wailing about the horrific consequences of his departure. The speed and consistency of their reactions implies the existence of manuals prepared ahead of time.

Second, a public statement Smoliy resignation was made within an hour after placement of Ukraine's Eurobonds for $ 1.75 million under 7.3 percent for 12 years. As a result of scandal the location had to cancel. And, of course, it was a separate "gift" from supervising Smoliy people, not a coincidence.

So the combination of resignation was a win-win for its sponsors. Fired — a small loss, the Bank will continue to lead the same team. Not fired — even a clear victory by knockout. But in that and in other case its authors will show — because the placement of Eurobonds fell before voting on the resignation.

But why this move occurred at all?

That the Ukrainian government in the face of the most part of deputies of the Pro-government faction want to do Smoliy extreme, became known in mid-June.

Admittedly, it was for that.

Over the last six years the Ukrainian banking system almost stopped lending to the economy — and this trend is only getting worse. Moreover, the number of banks in the system shrank by 2.5 times due to the barbaric Stripping of banks in 2014-2016. The system of private banks with Ukrainian capital was almost completely destroyed. And although the destruction of banks happened in Gontareva, raiding their assets continued after her departure. Selling packages of assets for one percent of their cost even in the spring of this year was business as usual. IMF such policy of the NBU was completely satisfied because, on the one hand, clearing the market for foreign banks, and on the other — along with tight monetary policy and reduce lending to the economy and especially industry. Yes, a large part was put under the knife of the banks were captive, that is credited mainly not always effective business owners, these banks. But in doing a lot of business was maintained afloat. Of course, to close their eyes to the looting of the NBU management of the assets of the liquidated banks to the IMF was quite feasible cost.

The other side of the coin of the national Bank, as already mentioned, was the tight monetary policy of maintaining an inflated discount rate, which last year in real terms was the highest in the world. Against this background bloomed the building of the pyramid of government bonds. And the arrival of foreign speculative capital in the market of these bonds has led to the artificial strengthening of the hryvnia, which was an additional blow to the local industry. This happened last year, when the NBU was under the nominal leadership Smoliy.

Obviously, from the middle of June they were bidding on the opportunity to avoid a public flogging and leave Smoliy in office. By the way, finally they ended on the eve of the vote, when the government agreed to fill the shortfall of votes "sorozat" faction "servant of the people" vote "the Opposition platform of Pro — life" and "homeland."

However, the possibility of appointment to the post of head of the NBU independent of Western man excluded for two reasons.

First, having crushed under itself the Ukrainian Central Bank, the IMF did not forget the Memorandum of cooperation under a new credit line maximum to hobble the Ukrainian government in matters affecting the actions of the NBU. Its absolute independence from the Ukrainian government devoted a considerable part of the Memorandum.

Secondly, as already mentioned, Valeria Gontareva managed to clean up national intellectual capital and institutional memory to conduct its own monetary policy, the Bank simply can not. And there are doubts that this ability can be restored in the foreseeable future — it is unlikely in principle can be done quickly, and especially in terms of staff shortage.

What the IMF can go — so it's for approval of any new docile of the figure at the head of the NBU, which will be no less a patriot than its predecessors, and therefore swear allegiance to the strategic objectives of the Fund. In return this figure together with approximate can be given a license to plunder the aborigines in the framework of the exchange rate, monetary or Supervisory policy. But not beyond the strategic objectives of the West. That is roughly in the same format in which we played Gontareva last six years.