In the HSE, told about the tens of thousands of lives saved from COVID-19 in Russia
Designed by the Higher school of economy development models of coronavirus infection in Russia has shown that the decisions taken by government and citizens, efforts have helped to save several tens of thousands up to several million, according to the study of Economics.
There it is specified that "in the framework of this scenario assumes that you are informing the public from the government, but the authorities do not carry out active actions on prevention of the epidemic".
The difference between model estimates of number of deaths in this approach, the actual and expected mortality (20-25 thousand people) represents the number of lives saved. This approach more realistically assesses the characteristics of modern society and the dissemination of information in it. Thus, the lives saved are a result of the change of behavior of citizens and active actions of the authorities to limit the epidemic.
Another scenario presented by the HSE, suggests that "in case of the rejection of the use of any whatsoever of the protective mechanisms of the society and authorities", "limit the number of additional deaths during the epidemic could reach 3.79 million people (2,6% of the population)".
The Institute added that such a method of calculating potential losses received recently spread in several foreign countries.
"However, this maximum estimate of losses that is based on the assumption that citizens suddenly lost the ability to self-education and rational information processing. Such an assessment seems overstated," warned the researchers.
"As history shows, the lack of effective action and the undeveloped health in terms of epidemic or other shocks can actually lead to huge losses in human lives. For example, according to current estimates, the flu epidemic of 1918-1919 led to the death of approximately 50 million people worldwide (about 2.8% of the population)" - reminiscent of the HSE.
On June 29 in Russia was 641 thousand 156 cases of coronavirus infection, recovered - 403 thousand 430 people. 9 thousand 166 people died.
Conducted more than 19.3 million tests.
Relevant data on the situation of COVID-19 in Russia and the world presented on the portal stopmanager.of the Russian Federation.