The US was hoping for a "Russian trace" in Libya, they missed the Egyptian
While the West is diligently looking for — and even supposedly finds — evidence of Russia's participation in the war in Libya on the side of the Libyan national army (LNA), is becoming increasingly likely intervention in the conflict there very different country.
Egypt receives considerable support for its plans to train and arm the Libyan tribes. Last week Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said that "if the Libyan people will be asked to intervene, Cairo will help." After a few days the head of the Libyan Parliament, sitting in the East of the country (controlled just LNA), said that an appeal to the Egyptian authorities could follow if the troops of the national consensus Government (NTC) captured the city of Sirte and the province Dzhufra, and then move on to the East.
The motives pushing the Egyptians to intervention, multiple: there are strong positions in the NTC Islamists (including the "Muslim Brothers"* to which Egypt is bound by a period of internal instability in the early 2010s), and the oil wealth of the neighbouring country, and the desire to give a hand too active there of Turkey.
It is worth Recalling that a new round of escalation in Libya began about six months ago and was associated primarily with the ambitions of two people: the head of the LNA Marshal Khalifa the Haftarot and the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Last year, Haftar stepped up military action against the NTC, and even had some success, close the approaches to Tripoli. Moreover, the military actions of the LNA was accompanied by a strong rhetoric of its commander, declared, in particular, on the transition of power in the country to the army.
And then once again confirmed the wisdom of the old proverb "do Not say "hop" until they are hatched".
Winter Turkey supported the NTC and its leader Fayeza Zarraga, sending to the aid of controlled armed groups. As a result, the LNA not only retreated from Tripoli, but now have to defend themselves, and in a very sensitive point: Sirte is considered the gateway to the "oil Crescent" — the area to the East of the country, where the main focus of the terminals and the base Dzhufra called "the key to control over all of Libya".
However, now Erdogan himself was in the position of the Haftarot: for to him was unacceptable victory for the LDF, so for a number of States in the Middle East is totally unacceptable to the triumph of Ankara in Libya. Most acutely this question is just for Egypt (which is confirmed by the latest statements of Cairo), and also for Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Moreover, the current success of the Turks slightly pleasing and Americans. Reacting to the above mentioned statement of the Egyptian President, Washington has focused on their efforts to cease fire in the war-torn country, not the plans of intervention in the Libyan conflict.
For the famous statement of Winston Churchill about generals always preparing for the last war, is a criticism of the warlords for the tendency of many of them conservative tunnel vision and the inability to adequately assess the new realities. Nowadays, however, this aphorism is equally suited to the characteristics of the US and its foreign policy in General.
In the international arena theme "Russia has Haftarot military support" is one of the most popular in the Annex to the Libyan conflict. And in recent months it sounds of each "iron", including AFRICOM (Africa command of the US Armed forces). The us military, in particular, accused Moscow of the transfer to Libya of military aircraft to support the LDF. About such things as claims of "Russian mercenaries, under the auspices of the Kremlin involved in the Libyan conflict," can not even mention — so popular they have become.
Without a doubt, one of the main reasons of such position — the desire to drive a wedge and maybe even provoke a direct conflict between Russia and Turkey, who manage to develop constructive cooperation in spite of the long list of diametrically opposed interests (including, indeed, in Libya).
Its role is clearly played by the US desire to continue anti-Russian propaganda campaign, presenting our country as the main evil of the world.
But do not underestimate such factors as the apparent desire of the United States for simplification.
In the period of its global dominance, America has imposed on the planet is maximally simple view of the world, divided it into definite dichotomy: black and white, good and bad, definitely the right point of view and essentially incorrect, the forces of light and forces of darkness, the winners and losers.
Here only the collapse of a unipolar world led to the return to politics of diverse complexity, the multiplicity of centers of power, each with its own truth and their own interests. To manage such a system, the more prescriptive methods — it is simply impossible, although America is trying hard to do it.
In fact, the continued accusations of the Americans against Moscow on Libya is a special case of the efforts to drive released the Genie of confusing and contradictory multipolarity back into the bottle the black-and-white system of American hegemony.
After all, all is beautiful and harmonious looks on paper: the LDF against the NTC, recognized by the international community where Russia for the Haftarot, Turkey — for Zarraga. To play off Moscow and Ankara, tossing fuel to the fire of conflict and weakening both. To help Erdogan against the LDF and his hands to defeat the Kremlin. And then deal with yourself too pretentious Turkish leader.
That's just the reality, everything is different.
Moscow and Ankara do not allow the existing contradictions between them to reach the extremes. In Libya, the intertwined interests of many powers, and for the LDF is its own — very impressive — support group. Russia does not give in to provocations, pushing her to the military participation in the Libyan conflict. But more clearly expresses its readiness for such a step in Egypt, an influential regional power whose political and military capabilities are such that to ignore it is simply impossible. And then there are the UAE, the Saudis — and even France, which is also almost openly sympathetic to the Haftarot.
The result is simple and elegant dvuhhodovki, which Americans imagined and in her mind already defeated, they are forced to deal with a confusing middle Eastern hub, and don't react to a familiar and favorite Washington methods of work.
*A terrorist organization banned in Russia.