Experts tell why Pyongyang has postponed military action against Seoul
"Delay" by North Korean leader Kim Jong-UN, the implementation of the plans of the General staff of military measures and of the campaign against South Korea - no more than a temporary respite, and Seoul must seriously consider their next steps, I think South Korean experts.
On Wednesday it became known that the Chairman of the state Council of the DPRK Kim Jong-UN on 23 June held a provisional meeting of the fifth session of the Central military Commission of the workers ' party of Korea of the seventh convocation, which decided to postpone the General staff presented a plan of military action against South Korea. After that, according to Yonhap news Agency, North Korean Internet resources began to remove articles criticizing the South Korean government and the DPRK military at the border dismantled the speakers, which only had begun to set.
Experts differ in opinions when assessing the motivation of the DPRK leadership. Someone thinks that Kim Jong UN appreciated the efforts of Seoul to ban sending to North Korea leaflets and other things, violating inter-Korean agreements. Others point out that North Korea could simply decide to open confrontation, seeing the willingness of the South to fight back hard. Someone believes that the actions of the North is merely setting a goal to scare the South, in which the role of "bad COP" was allotted to the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jeong, and Kim Jong-UN made a wise and prudent umirotvorenie.
According to Professor of the Institute of the Far East at the University of Kyungnam Kim Dona, the latest version is improbable, because the guidance of undermining inter-Korean liaison office, military movements on the border and the organization of rallies condemning the actions of Seoul, the North Korean political system simply could not be given without the consent of the Supreme leader. More convincing, in his opinion, is an attempt to explain the sudden suspension of plans by a desire to see what the reaction and further actions of Seoul, which claimed that he is determined to eliminate all the problems in the shortest possible time. However, it cannot be excluded that adjustments in the foreign policy of Pyongyang was caused by internal reasons.
"North Korea is not so easy to stop. Maybe they just decided themselves to take breath, to regulate the voltage and speed (of development – ed.) within the country. In conditions, when Pyongyang committed to "front breakthrough" with a focus on the economy, for which it needs to send to the construction even of the military, excessive whipping up international tension and escalating it into a crisis can be seen as a negative factor," said Kim Dong EP in comments to RIA Novosti.
He noted that statements by the South Korean military and the media that the actions of Kim Jong-UN is "a good signal", "expected", and that there is still hope for contact between leaders of the two countries make no sense in a situation when neither the communication line between South and North is not working. After the explosion of inter-Korean liaison office and start organizing large-scale propaganda campaigns antilinearity the leadership of the DPRK can't just say to their citizens about the postponement of all of these plans without a good explanation. So if the South Korean government will not cling to this chance and quickly starts to realize all the promise, for Pyongyang it would only be even more significant reason to move to a serious military action.
As noted by Kim Dong Tu, in addition to delay military action on the preliminary meeting of the Central military Commission was considered "the main projects of military policy, reports and resolutions that will be submitted to the fifth session of the CEC TPK of the seventh convocation, and various documents reflecting government measures on further strengthening the military deterrent force of the country." In the report specifically mentioned the participation of the Chairman of the Ri Benches responsible party for the military industry.
"Although the General staff a plan of military action against the South was delayed, the rest of the items with high probability were accepted. And among them was probably the development of new weapons to modernize the military potential, as well as demonstrations of new strategic weapons, which was already mentioned at the party Plenum in December of last year. Depending on when the fifth session of the CEC, North Korea can demonstrate different nature of warfare. Therefore, the current suspend action against South Korea on the contrary may be associated with preparing for launches of SLBMs or demonstration of new strategic weapons, that is, military action directed against the United States," said Kim Deep.
However, the expert does not deny the positive variant, suggesting that the change in the position of Pyongyang is associated with the secret contacts conducted by South Korea in order to prevent the deterioration of the situation. But North Korea recently said they had nothing to talk about with Seoul, and in violation of diplomatic etiquette even told about the secret proposal of the administration of President moon Jae-In to negotiate, which was answered with a decisive refusal. All this casts doubt on the possible resumption of the dialogue in the current conditions.
Director of the Center for North Korean studies at the Sejong Institute, Jong song Zhang shared the view that regardless of how to react to the South Korean government in the near future, the deterioration of inter-Korean relations is inevitable, and yet that North Korea will gradually increase exchange and cooperation with China and Russia. But in the future, Seoul will have a chance to restore relations to normal.
"Kim Jong-UN already has a strict policy against the South, but when considered, that it is not profitable for North Korea suddenly switched to a policy of appeasement, and then back again to the hard line. So now there's a chance that after the final demolition of the Kaesong industrial complex and the whole South Korean infrastructure in the tourist area of MT. the North will return to the policy of appeasement. And South Korea now need to consider how it will restore confidence, to remove the military tension and to improve inter-Korean relations", - concluded the expert.