The analyst admitted the possibility of a crisis comparable to the great depression
Published on Wednesday, the IMF forecast indicates that the total losses of the global economy from the pandemic of coronavirus exceed the losses of the financial crisis of 2008-2010 and will be comparable to the effects of the great depression 30-ies of the last century, says managing the American Fund Principal Investors Kyle Shostak.
The international monetary Fund has published today a new forecast for the development of the world economy. According to him, the global GDP by the end of this year because of the pandemic will fall by 4.9%, US 8%, the Euro area and by 10.2%.
According to him, the total losses of the global economy from a pandemic in 2020-2021 years will exceed $ 12 trillion. "An incredible figure, given that a year ago nobody would come from to even suggest anything about the possibility of such a cataclysm, nor of the scale of losses associated with it," he said.
The expert added that as expected, world trade will collapse by 12%.
"The collapsed world trade destroyed its supply chain will significantly hinder recovery in both developed and developing economies," he explained.
It is possible that this forecast will be revised, according to the investor.
"The IMF forecast is fraught with risks as reassessment and underestimation of the gravity of the situation", — said the Agency interlocutor.
On the one hand, news about vaccine development and treatment of the virus can stimulate and significantly improve the mobility of the population and consumer spending, clearing the way for a quick financial recovery. On the other — the emerging new wave of the spread of the virus can bury even this fragile growth, he says.
However, the fall of the runway is not the only factor that will have to deal with States.
"Many, both developed and developing countries expect the move of human resources from stagnating in a rapidly growing sector of the economy. Will increase public debt, countries will increasingly turn to external borrowing", — said Shostak.
Recent data on the situation of COVID-19 in Russia and the world presented on the portal stopmanager.of the Russian Federation.