The Future Of China — West. But not what you think
It's official: a key area of application of the economic efforts of China in the coming years will be China itself — more precisely, its Western part. The plan, called "Go West", was published last spring. In the fall he will be specific, as will be indicators of future five-year plan (2021-2025). And now started the discussion of the main details and particulars.
What in China is called the West, is three quarters of the territory of the country, but is inhabited by only a quarter of the population. Americans are familiar with this situation, they learn exactly the same West took, in fact, the whole 19th century.
The main problem of the previous program of development of the Chinese West, in effect since 1999, was not even lack of money (and there, 20 years ago was certainly less than now), and the population. It the years, migrated in the opposite direction — to the booming ports of the East. However, even then there were sometimes at least a structural labor shortage, then there are a few people of certain professions. And to entice the residents of Eastern China to the deserts of Xinjiang or Tibet mountains was especially difficult.
The first thing is obvious in connection with new plans — it will be another China. His story, however, is already happening. In the era of the Tang (seventh — tenth century ad) China, with its capital in the current XI'an, was all directed to the West, and this was the civilization that developed in Central Asia, India, and others. It was a China of horses and camels, the land of the caravans, deserts and rocks. By the way, the name "Xinjiang" meaning "new territory" — appeared in the vernacular in an age when Rome was still ruled by the Caesars, and then pop up in different documents and in different versions.
But the next dynasty, the roads West were closed or lost value, and the capital shifted to the South-East and China for centuries became another — a country of water, canals, boats and bridges. Country, drawn to the warm seas of the East. In fact, he rather like this today.
But now the shifts of this sort happen to the world in General — at least, the Beijing authorities believe that this is so. Recall the "Chinese miracle" occurred not just because the country in the 1980-ies gradually capitalism has returned. Still worked the formula "to export the products to USA and Europe, obtaining energy resources from the Middle East, Latin America and Russia." Exports of goods meant investing in production, placed in the port cities of the East, which now look better than new York or Tokyo.
When in Beijing I saw signs that wonderful era ends — not with a beginning of a confrontation initiated by the administration of Donald trump? Much earlier. In 2013, the head of the government Li Keqiang, speaking in Qingzhou, noted that exports to the US and Europe ceased to grow, reaching a saturation point. And said that if the exports going via the Eastern route (i.e. through the ports on the coast) brakes, so the future is in the West. However, it is to the West took and Southeast Asia (in part, to the southern tip of China, really is located slightly to the West).
Anyway, USA today is an escalation, which they are trying to drag and the EU, and in the first five months of this year, Chinese exports to Southeast Asia for the first time in modern history came in first place. In the second place, the EU, and the U.S. — only in third.
But it is, so to speak, the natural course of events. And there are not very natural. This economic mayhem perpetrated by the quarantines from the coronavirus in Europe and in the US, with uncertain prospects of recovery. Plus something worse — which began in the same political events, very similar to revolution.
Indicative statement belonging to the American essayist Victor David Hanson: the rage and hatred of Americans to their own history (with the overthrow of the monuments and other pogroms) come from universities, where students have long not give the necessary knowledge, instead suggesting the idea that their country is against them.
So, someone who, as the Chinese this situation is familiar. A whole generation, not receiving a decent education, but of smashing and destroying their own past and present, history and culture? Yes this is the "cultural revolution". Been there, done that.
It's not the fact that the US and the ideologically close to them in the country after the current event does not rise: and where do they go — will recover, will survive. The case in the time factor. The recovery is long. The Chinese cultural revolution lasted a decade, from the mid 60s to mid 70s. It meant, except ogromennoe economy, the failure of a whole generation of educated people, without which no nation good lives. How long will the current ugliness in the US, repeated it (and to what extent) in other countries is unclear.
To wait to improve Beijing is certainly not going yet and will own the West. And countries lying on the continuation of the Western direction and are combined in a logistic-economic project "Belt and road". Will look like this partnership in ten or twenty years, whether to keep it European, or other country — a complicated question, but the direction of the movement and development of the world economy in General — is clear and logical.
But there is one fundamental difference with the situation two decades ago: today broken the backbone of Uyghur terrorism in Xinjiang. The number of terrorist attacks there in the thousands, now for three years there was none. So, the movement to the West will become more confident. However, last week in Beijing, "for the oppression of the Uighurs" were imposed us sanctions — but those are now and not a threat or even event.