The expert spoke about the chances of candidates to get into the non-permanent members of the UN security Council

Chances to become a non-permanent member of the UNSC for 2021-2022 years have all of the seven candidate countries, told RIA Novosti senior analyst of the center for International Crisis Group Ashish Pradhan.

The UN General Assembly on Wednesday will elect new non-permanent members of the Security Council for the five seats will compete Canada, Djibouti, India, Ireland, Kenya, Mexico, Norway. In January 2021, five of these countries will take the place of Germany, Belgium, the Dominican Republic, Indonesia, and South Africa, who were elected at 2019-2020.

"It's hard to predict who will be, but chances are at all States," said Pradhan.

It is anticipated that States will be elected in four regional groups.

For one seat from the African group will compete Djibouti and Kenya. In the Asia / Pacific group on one place appeared only India, so she has no rivals, which, however, does not exempt her from having to collect 129 votes out of 193 (many countries only part of the United Nations).

In one place in the group of Latin American and Caribbean regions struggling Mexico. And three countries - Canada, Ireland, and Norway will vie for two places in the group, covering Western Europe and other States.

"It is absolutely clear that the most interesting part of this rivalry will become the regional group of Western Europe and other countries and the African group. As for the African group, it is very strange that there is open rivalry between the two countries," - said the expert.

According to him, usually a country that will take the place of Africa in the number of non-permanent members of the UN security Council, defined at the continental level, and then approved by the African Union before. Only then the candidate is called in new York, he explained.

"This time, Kenya was endorsed by some members of the African Union Djibouti, says that the candidacy of Kenya has not been approved in its highest circles. This is interesting because both countries from the same region and both are involved in the supply of peacekeepers to UN operations, particularly Peacekeeping African Union mission to Somalia (AMISOM). Both States can draw attention to regional position in deliberations of the Security Council," said Pradhan.

At the same time, he said, Kenya had emphasized the need to bring the position of the peace and security Council of the African Union in the UN security Council to translate the discussion between Addis Ababa and other parts of Africa to new York. "It is hard to predict, but maybe Kenya has a small advantage," - suggested the expert.

"If we talk about the band, covering Western Europe and other States, and Canada, and Ireland and Norway are quite positive approach to multilateralism, for the UN to gender equality, to peacekeeping, to issues of climate change," said Pradhan.

He recalled that Norway has a long tradition of mediation in the peaceful settlement. "Ireland is focused on gender issues. Canada has also a high level of cooperation in questions of development, peace and security, the fight against climate change," - said the expert.

Pradhan called a very influential positions, who will leave Council at the end of 2020. We are talking in particular about Germany, Belgium, and South Africa. "Each has its own interests. Germany leads the discussion on Libya, Sudan, Afghanistan. Belgium is interested in the discussion of the situation in the DRC, Burundi. South Africa had raised all African issues. So I think they are very worthy predecessors new arrivals. And the new fiver will do anything to fill the emerging void," said Pradhan.

However, he suggests that the new members of the security Council, to some extent, demonstrate the continuity of the question of priorities.

"If we're talking about Kenya, the importance of linking decisions taken in the African Union, with what is happening in the UN Security Council, fits into the political line of the Republic of South Africa and its predecessor, Ethiopia," - said the expert.

He noted that Germany now takes the lead in the issue of peace and security in the UN security Council. "Countries like Ireland, for example, see themselves as successors of this course in the Security Council," - said the analyst.

Meanwhile, speaking about India, he stressed that new Delhi will seek to ensure that the issue of the dispute with Pakistan remained a bilateral issue. "So, new Delhi will try not to make this issue on the UN agenda. We've heard from India, and we will hear calls for the reform of the Security Council. I think India definitely considers himself first after the permanent members of the security Council", he added.

The UN security Council - a permanent structure of the organization that has primary responsibility for maintaining international peace and security. In the security Council always sit 15 countries - five permanent members and ten temporary.

The permanent members - Russia, USA, UK, China and France. They have veto power. Ten other members of the SB are elected for two years. Germany, Belgium, Dominican Republic, Indonesia and South Africa elected in 2019 and 2020, and Vietnam, Niger, Tunisia, Estonia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines – in 2020-2021 years.

All seven of the candidate countries in nepostroennye members of the UN security Council already was part of the security Council. India held the seat in the security Council seven times, Canada six, Mexico and Norway - four, Ireland three, Kenya – twice, Djibouti – only once.

The country is a candidate for election must receive two-thirds vote of the present delegates of the General Assembly or at least 129 votes out of 193. According to the regulations, the election shall be by secret ballot.