The expert predicted the decline of Russia's GDP in 2020, 4.2%
The decline of the Russian economy this year will amount to 4.2%, with good development of the situation in the second half of the fall can be less than 3%, said in an interview with RIA Novosti General Director of rating Agency "Expert RA" Sergey Tishchenko.
It's optimistic forecasts, the Russian financial authorities. The official forecast of Ministry of economic development involves the reduction of Russia's GDP in 2020 to 5%. The Bank of Russia expects the economic downturn of the country in 2020 in the range of 4-6%. The head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said that does not rule out a decline of Russia's GDP in the second quarter is stronger than 8%.
The expert noted that the situation will depend on the prices of commodities given the fall in exports of oil by OPEC recovery should be at the level of 50 dollars per barrel to win back losses, and should be a recovery in consumer and investment demand.
Tishchenko emphasized that the rigidity of the macroeconomic policy (high real interest rates on debt, a budget surplus and the fiscal rule) that prevented growth in recent years has provided a margin of safety and the budget, and the entire Russian economy. Thus in contrast to past crises, the government and the Bank of Russia acted more coordinated, he said.
The full text of the interview is available on the website of the Agency of economic information "Prime" (included in the media group "Russia today") 1prime.ru at 12.00 GMT.