The fall of the shares of "Norilsk Nickel" – speculation, analysts say

The stock market may be too negatively assessed the value of the consequences of the oil spill, the CHP-3 in Norilsk for shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel, which is typical for securities of companies in environmental accidents. Speculators will begin to buy shares of "Norilsk Nickel" as soon as the normalization of the situation, according to respondents RIA Novosti analysts.

To 18.07 GMT the shares of "Norilsk Nickel" fall by 7.98% to 20 082 ruble and already fell 9.6 per cent to 19 738 of the ruble.

One of the storage tanks of diesel fuel at TPP-3 Norilsk may 29 was damaged, leakage of about 21 thousand tons of fuel. On the territory of the Krasnoyarsk region introduced a state of emergency at the Federal level. Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the security forces to check the work of local officials, as in the MOE reported about the late receipt of information about the incident to the Department. As explained in the "Norilsk Nickel", the main cause of the accident was warming in the permafrost, which resulted in the movement of the supports under the fuel tanks.

The disaster zone is located near Norilsk, but the locals and the surrounding villages were not injured. Also managed to prevent the ingress of fuel into the Kara sea through the lake Pyasino.

"Shares "Norilsk Nickel" can quickly return to previous levels when the overall situation on the market stabiliziruemost. When disasters of any shares falling in a short period, and then generally returned to levels that preceded the events," commented analyst CC "Finam" Sergey Drozdov.

"In our opinion, the fall is a classic speculation. Operation on liquidation of the accident will not affect the financial position of the company. Possible resignation and dismissal of key management are not affected. We are laying the return of the shares of "Norilsk Nickel" to 21 450 rubles on the horizon next week. From the current values, the increase of quotations will make 6%," - said the analyst of "freedom Finance" Valery Yemelyanov.

"The theme of environmental protection now plays a very important role on the political agenda. ... Which means that the subject will be exaggerated in the media for a long time, "Norilsk Nickel" will accuse and try to award him penalties," - said the chief analyst of "ALOR Broker" Alexey Antonov.

He believes that the fall in the company's securities may continue to 15-16 thousand rubles per share. "At these levels of paper will pick up those who believe in large future dividends in the successful clearing of spilled diesel fuel, which can take up to six months," he says.

Potentially in "Norilsk Nickel" have the opportunity to prove that he is not to blame for the spill that the object has passed all the necessary tests and that the incident is random, also the analyst believes.

While the decrease in actions "Norilsk Nickel" can be called a correction from the historic heights, also the analyst of commodity markets "Opening Broker" Oksana Lukicheva.

In her estimation, 19 thousand rubles per share is a strong support level. She believes that the level will resist if the consequences of the accident will be quickly eliminated and the company will get off with a fine. If the consequences of failure are more serious, the drawdown can be up to 15-16 thousand rubles.

"From the business point of view, the company "Norilsk Nickel" – very good and very expensive, so while investors are closely watching the decline in prices, in the event of a reversal have time to enter at a favorable level. This is a risk, but as soon as it becomes clear the severity of the situation, the market can act very quickly (or sharp selling, or at least a sharp upward movement)," she says.

"Taimyr mine – one of the deepest mines of Eurasia and the largest asset of the company, its development difficult. In October 2019, was the accident at the mine due to methane emissions. Then the action "Norilsk Nickel" sank by 16.7 thousand to 15.8 thousand rubles, but after about three weeks of growth stocks resumed", - reminds Lukicheva from "Opening Broker".

"Perhaps not quite correct to compare this crash with the current, but in principle it is possible to draw conclusions about the dynamics of stock prices", - says the analyst.

You can also recall the accident of BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico as a very large-scale accident, she said. However, after billions of dollars in fines that BP is still alive and running, adds a financial expert.

"So not too scary event for large businesses, but can become significant in terms of tightening requirements to the follow-up work," she concludes.