The expert assessed the situation in Libya
The situation in Libya is moving towards a phase of political settlement between East and West of the country, the talks between the sides can begin in autumn, told RIA Novosti senior lecturer at the school of Oriental studies, faculty of world economy and international Affairs NRU HSE Andrey Chuprygin.
After the overthrow and murder of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya has virtually ceased to function as a unified state. Now the country is in a diarchy. To the East sits a Parliament elected by people, and in the West, in the capital Tripoli, the rules generated with the support of the UN and the European Union, the Government of national consent headed by Fitom Barragem. The authorities of the Eastern part of the country operate independently from Tripoli to cooperate with the Libyan national army, led by Marshal Khalifa the Haftarot, which is April 2019 not stop trying to seize Tripoli.
"Negotiations (representatives of the government of Libya massoglia) in Moscow and the visit (the head of the NTC of Libya Fiesa) Zarraga to Turkey now is the beginning of the generation starting positions for peace negotiations, to develop a format of reconciliation between East and West Libya. I think that by autumn we will see a concerted movement, to start negotiations (between the opposing sides of the conflict)," - said the expert.
Thus, according to Chuprygin, "all now eager to get a piece of influence in Libya, both Russia and Turkey, and Europe". "Americans, I think there is no chance. Libya will be a European theater. Now starts generation of starting positions. We are no less exciting than the military, a period of political battles," - said the analyst.
Meanwhile, the expert noted that military action in this country just will not stop. "Do not assume that the war will stop immediately. In Libya, a large number of people over the last 10 years dealt only with war but war know nothing and for whom it was the only way to make a living. Just because it will not stop, will require a huge effort. And quite possibly, will need an international effort to reintegrate all of the many militant groups, armed gangs in the civil state. It's much harder than to reach a political solution to the crisis in the country", - said Chuprygin.
The analyst does not exclude that the solution in Libya will resort to oblivisci format of the conference. "I would guess that, most likely, will attempt to return to the failed format oblivisci conference, which was held in Ghadames in April last year under the auspices of the UN and was thwarted due to the occurrence of the Haftarot on Tripoli," said Chuprygin.
The expert believes that meeting directly Zarraga and the Haftarot hardly ever happens. "Meeting the Haftarot and Zarraga will not. They may be forced to push for a meeting, but it makes no sense. Haftar had already lost political leverage. And Sarraj believes that Haftar has already showed all his duplicity," said the analyst.
The Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov on Wednesday held a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister of the national consensus Government (NTC) of Libya, Ahmed Mitiga and foreign Minister of the NTC, Mohammed Seloy. In addition, on the same day was held a telephone conversation with Lavrov, Minister of foreign Affairs Sameh shoukry, during which the parties emphasized the necessity of ending fighting in Libya and the resumption of meaningful negotiations between the warring parties, reported in the Russian depodesta.