Economists have estimated the chances of further strengthening of the ruble
The ruble recovered to the level of the beginning of March, however, the strengthening of the national currency is unlikely to last long, according to respondents RBC economists.
Among the reasons for the growth of the ruble, the experts noted the rebound in oil prices, consistent fiscal policy, the confidence of domestic holders of ruble assets and the resumption of activity in major markets in the world.
However, in addition to external reasons, there are internal factors that affect the growth rate of the ruble. Economists have identified strongly reduced the import of goods and services, and in particular, outbound tourism, without which the purchase of foreign currency by the population greatly reduced. In addition, your contribution to the situation makes the decline of dividends for which exporters can sell foreign currency.
The economist "BCS Premier" Anton Pokatovich expects strengthening of the ruble exchange rate to 67 per dollar.
Chief economist of Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova predicts that by the end of the year for dollar will give about 67 rubles. In her opinion, much will depend on the outcome of the US presidential elections.
Head of the dealing center Metallinvestbank Sergey Romanchuk, in turn, expects that in the case of global recovery, the dollar will be give for 65 rubles, but by the fall of the Russian currency will weaken.
According to the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Denis Breaking, the ruble is now too strong compared to oil prices. In the third quarter for a dollar will be given for 74 of the ruble, and by the end of the year 72, on the condition that a barrel will cost $ 40, he said. The expert said that the forecast is very dependent on quarantine due to the coronavirus.
The average for the year 2020 the dollar will give about 76 rubles, predicts economist of "Renaissance Capital" in Russia and the CIS Sophia Donets. According to her, the easing of restrictions because of the coronavirus will recover the demand for industrial goods that is compensated by the fall in imports of services. In addition, according to experts, the decline in oil production will affect the volume of exports, which will also weaken the ruble.