By hook or China — Russia will again try to lure the West into a trap
Now Russia needs the West more than the West needs Russia, and the farther, the stronger it will be shown — this banal idea is very difficult to learn not only a few of Westerners, but also by Western leaders. It is very difficult to accept that the rules of the game and the agenda in relations with Russia is determined not much stronger in the West — but this lack of understanding is itself evidence that the Atlantic world is a thing of the past, leaving behind only the usual cliches.
Last year, on the eve of the summit "the Big seven" in Quebec city, trump talked about it — but then no one except the Italian Prime Minister, openly did not support it. Now trump has decided to go to the other side. Last weekend, he told his companions on the flight from Florida to reporters that the "Big seven" is outdated.
"I don't think the "Big seven" is a true reflection of what is happening in the world."
So you should wait until September and discussed the future of China — but not with XI Jinping, and Putin. To invite Russia, and along with South Korea, Australia and India — "what do we have? We have a good group of countries".
Idea, wonderful in all respects: to discuss China, which is assigned to trump the main threat to peace, and to return to Russia, which was appointed for this role the previous President of the United States. That is to make peace with Russia, what had long been calls trump, and begin along with it to deal with China, which has long been advocated by some us strategists. And Russia wants to participate in this holiday?
What will happen to it — she has carefully hidden fear of Chinese expansion. And indeed, the Russian elite are Pro-Western mentality, and she wants to return to the club "the world leaders". But only without losing face, so we give them the respect demonstrated, then they have nowhere to go, because they themselves want it. So the problem now is that we, i.e. the West, not too much gingerbread to give Putin and the Russians give themselves airs and deem themselves winners. Carrot and stick need to act — while not going anywhere.
Make really not — but for a different reason. Not because the elites will pass Russia, Putin seriously changed the composition and mentality of the elites. Those who believe that Russia, now as in the 90s, ruled by people who think the West is a model and a senior teacher, a Russian — failed branch of European civilization, live in some fantasy world. Russia has a lot of problems with the elite and with raising the national consciousness — but no doubt the sufficiency of our leadership there. And that it understands what the national interest, knows history and geography, that is, geopolitics comes from the Russian historical experience — and is making a play on the world stage. A strategic game which has many rounds, changing circumstances and the surrounding atmosphere, but remains a permanent objective. Strong, self-sufficient Russia, a country-civilization, serving as one of the centers of power that will define the world order in the XXI century. Nothing less Russia, published in the XVIII century the first role on the world stage, just can't agree — crush.
How will help to achieve this objective rapprochement with the West? No — even tactical game can only hurt us. And not because after the collapse of the USSR the West continued its assault on the us biting off a piece of everything that was possible, until they reached unthinkable to us, that is, to the Ukraine, to Ukraine. No, everything is clear — no compromises on the so-called post-Soviet space: atlanticare Ukraine, its consolidation in the geopolitical field of the West impossible and non-negotiable.
But more importantly, how the West closer to Russia, even if she wanted it? A single of the West's no — longer the process of collapse is already a few years and fully meets our national interests. We can build bridges with elements, parts of the West — some European countries, and the EU in General (but once it will gain geopolitical autonomy), even with the anti-globalization America trump (if it held). But we can't plan for the future with the Atlantic West — still alive — and because he is our implacable geopolitical not even the enemy, and the enemy (being interested in isolating and weakening Russia), because he has no future.
Our strategy for the Atlantic West is very simple: we believe that century of domination of the West itself came to an end, and the Atlantic world gives way to the Pacific and Eurasian. With the direct and key participation of Russia, began a turn to the East and South, not because he quarreled with the West, and because he understands the laws of history and geopolitics.
The "big seven" has long been empty, and although trump is not just going to bury it, even when you re-elect, it will gradually turn into a platform for identifying relationships between doomed to divorce parties. The "big eight" (that is, the format with the participation of Russia), frozen by the West after the Crimea cannot be restored in principle — and even because Russia over the years has strengthened its strategic Alliance with China. The West plus Russia can not determine the rules of the game in the world — it needs all the key players. Of course, China and India — but also regional integration unions, representing South-East Asia, the Arab world, South America, Africa. The closest to this format "the Big twenty". It should be easy to bring to mind, including representatives of regional unions (especially since it is already part of EU).
Instead, trump offers to create something in between the "Big seven" and "Big twenty" — a group of 11 countries. If you compare G-11 G-20, who it will be — except China, against which all afoot? South America (Mexico, Argentina and Brazil), Africa (South Africa) and the Islamic world (Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia) — that is, again, the Western cabal (involving Anglo-Saxon (Australia) or politically dependent countries (South Korea), which somehow needs to join Russia and India. But Putin and modi represent an independent state-civilization, which is ridiculous even to suggest to participate in such a game, the more openly anti-China in nature.
At the same time politely to stop trump will be very difficult. As the host of the summit he has the right to invite anyone, and even objections from the UK or Germany against Putin's participation may not be considered. This is not a restoration of the "Big eight" — and so, the meeting in the extended format.
But, of course, Vladimir Putin will not go on any format of the meeting with the "Big seven" — even if he was called to restore the "Big eight". Made them last fall the remark about the "Big eight" that we are not against any forms of interaction, had a very important reservation: as Western leaders in 2014 have refused to come to Russia for a summit, that if now "our partners want us to come, we will be happy". Come join us in the Crimea, one word.