OPEC August 1 will begin to check the stability of the recovery of the oil market: the Alliance will move to the second stage started in may of the deal to reduce output, which is the easing of restrictions with unprecedented 9.7 million million barrels per day to 7.7 million.
It is expected that this phase will last until the end of the year and to avoid excessive overheating of the market. As reported by Minister of energy of Russia Alexander Novak, in July, the oil market was fairly balanced and was able to go in a shortage of supply due to transaction-OPEC and reduce oil production in several other countries.
The Euro a few overheated, and while we should not expect its strengthening in the area of $ 90, believe polled by RIA Novosti experts.
The Euro on Monday updated its maximum since April, rising to 84.48 ruble. On Forex the European currency highs from September 2018 and has already been raised earlier in the week to 1,1764 dollar.
World oil prices on Friday morning are rising due to cheaper dollar, which supports demand for commodities, according to the auction.
As at 8.05 GMT, the September futures price for North sea petroleum mix of mark Brent has grown on 0,35% - to the accounting period by 43.46 per barrel, the September futures for WTI rose in price on 0,15% - to 41,13 per barrel.
Expected on 24 July, the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank will have little impact on the exchange rate, however, the comments of the regulator on the prospects for monetary policy will be the main reference point for exchange rate dynamics, according to respondents RIA Novosti experts.
At the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia July 24, we expect another reduction of the key rate from the current 4.5% per annum, to which the indicator came last June - a meeting of the Board of Directors. Then the rate was reduced from 1 percentage point for the first time in five years to a historic low.
The oil market is balanced and stable enough in June, the decline in demand due to coronavirus was 10 million barrels per day to 25 million barrels per day in April, said the head of the energy Ministry of Russia Alexander Novak.
"We see that the market and demand is restored. If in April the decrease in demand was approximately 25 million barrels per day in the whole world, today this recovery has occurred to a greater extent, and in the month of June we observed a decrease in demand by about 10 million barrels," - said Novak at the press conference following the meeting of the Committee of Ministers on monitoring of OPEC .
Russia for several years already more or less adapted to the sanctions, therefore, the risks of a second wave of coronavirus and new quarantine measures are more dangerous to the ruble than the possible new Western sanctions against Russia, believe polled by RIA Novosti experts.
Currently the exchange rate is affected by several factors: oil prices, output non-residents of the OFZ, coronavirus and possible sanctions because of the "Nord stream -2", says head of personal brokerage services "BCS" Sergei Kuchin.
After a volatile beginning of the year for oil prices may in the future climb above $ 100 per barrel and reach $ 150 by 2025, allow analysts quoted by the newspaper Wall Street Journal.
As writes the edition, some experts predict a fall in investments in oil and gas production, which can lead to price spikes above $ 100 per barrel. "This financial pressure will be significant. Some manufacturers will be really difficult to implement mining... Prices can quite easily reach $ 150 by 2025", - the newspaper quoted Director of the Northern investment Capital Trace Trevor wood (Trevor Woods).
The ruble has significantly reduced the dollar and Euro amid falling oil prices.
American currency calculations "tomorrow" on 21:04 GMT rising 94 cents, to 71.5 ruble, the Euro by 1.04 ruble to 80,37 of the ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
The average retail price of gasoline in Russia has decreased the growth rate: 22 to 28 June, it increased by 5 cents compared to the previous week to 45.18 rubles per liter, and diesel rose by 3 cents, to 47,88 rubles per liter, according to the materials Rosstat.
In the second half of may, gasoline in Russia rose in price by 1-2 pennies a week, in the first week of June - 6 cents, then 8 cents, and in the previous reporting week, the growth rate of prices and it reached a peak at 13 cents.
The Finance Ministry has accumulated in the national welfare Fund (NWF), more than 12 trillion rubles, however, to Finance overheads prefers to increase borrowing, rather than spending the resources of the Fund, as it sees risks, including stability of the ruble, said Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev.
The amount of the Fund on June 1, was 12,161 trillion rubles.
The Finance Ministry has no plans to change the currency structure of the national welfare Fund (NWF), Deputy Minister of Finance Vladimir Kolychev.
"I think we all realized. That is, we did it more like the structure of foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank. Additional changes not yet discussed", - he told journalists, answering the question about the change in the currency structure of the Fund.
Oil prices on Thursday morning to grow for the second consecutive trading session on the wave of optimism caused by the reduction of inventories in the United States, according to the auction.
As of 7: 40 am GMT, the September futures price for North sea petroleum mix of mark Brent has grown on 0,21% - to 42.12 per barrel. August futures on WTI rose in price on 0,13% - to 39,87 USD per barrel.
WTI crude oil rose in the second quarter of the year to 93%, Brent - 59%, according to the auction.
At the end of trading Tuesday, the September futures price for North sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell by 1.2% to 41.27 per barrel, the August futures for WTI - by 0.7% to 39.27 USD per barrel.
Oil exports (excluding petroleum products) from Russia to the United States in April fell by more than 12 times on a monthly basis, to 396 thousand barrels, Russia dropped to 16th place in the ranking of the largest suppliers of oil in the United States, according to the energy information administration of energy of the United States (EIA).
In March Russia occupied the 7th place, putting in the United States 4,888 million barrels of oil. In April in the first place were Canada, which is followed by Mexico, Saudi Arabia and other countries.
The key rate in Russia may drop to the end of the year to 3.5-4% if the situation on global markets stabiliziruemost and will not be the second wave of the pandemic, said in an interview with RIA Novosti President of the Russian division of the international Association of professionals foreign exchange and money markets ACI Russia Sergey Romanchuk.
"If the whole world will not be shocked by the second wave of the pandemic, primarily involving the US, China, oil prices again will fall to zero and investors will not withdraw from all markets, that is, if the situation stabiliziruemost and there will be a vaccine - it is possible to see the rate of the CBR at 3.5-4% at the end of the year. This level looks likely-case scenario from the point of view of financial stability," he said.
The dollar could soon return to the mark of 60 rubles, because the difference between inflation in Russia and in the United States is declining, and the budget policy to protect the domestic currency from the impact of severe fluctuations in oil prices, said in an interview with RIA Novosti President of the Russian division of the international Association of professionals foreign exchange and money markets ACI Russia Sergey Romanchuk.
At the same time, the expert noted that although during the year it is possible to see the rate of 60 to 63 rubles per dollar, but he can't say that this is the most likely option.
At the auctions of Sankt-Petersburg international commodity exchange was established a record price for gasoline AI-95.
At the end of the trading session on 29 June, the price of this brand of fuel for delivery in the European part of Russia reached 58,174 thousand rubles per ton. It grew by 0.4 percent compared with the previous indicator.
The funding of national projects in the next two years could be reduced a total of 140 billion rubles in comparison with the recent amendments to the Federal budget for the years 2020-2022, the newspaper "Izvestia" with reference to the preliminary budget estimates of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.
Financing adjustment associated with the transfer and redistribution of resources in the coming years, the newspaper said. The national project "Demography" will address the most radical cuts in 2021-2022 years with his plan to withdraw almost 150 billion rubles (more than 10% of the cost of the project for a specified period). The Ministry reported that a key factor in reducing the funding for this project was the elaboration of the projected number of applications for maternity capital.
Oil prices on Monday morning, significantly reduced the concerns about the coronavirus and its impact on demand for raw materials, according to the auction.
As at 7.48 GMT, the September futures price for North sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell by 1.88 percent to 40.18 percent. August futures for WTI crude oil depreciated by 2.21% to 37.64 per dollar per barrel.
Oil prices on Friday morning significantly increase in optimism around the prospects of a recovery in demand for raw materials, according to the auction.
As at 7.54 GMT the price of August futures for North sea petroleum mix of mark Brent has grown on 1,39% - to 41.62 USD per barrel. August futures on WTI rose in price on 1,29% - to 39.22 per barrel.
Oil prices continue to decline on the background of the spread of coronavirus and rising stocks of raw materials in the United States, according to the auction.
As of 8:25 Moscow time the cost of the August futures for North sea Brent was down by 0.79% to 39.98 USD per barrel. August futures for WTI became cheaper by 0.63% — to 37.77 USD.
The rate of decline in global oil prices has accelerated to about 4.5% after the release of statistics US Department of energy on its reserves and production in the country, according to the auction.
As at 17.56 GMT the price of August futures for North sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell by 4.46% to 40.73 per barrel, the August futures for WTI - by 4.63% to 38.5 percent. Earlier in the day, these prices fell to 1-1,5%.
Russian oil Urals from the beginning of June has risen in Europe by more than $ 7, 45-46 dollars a barrel, the brand is still trading with a premium to Brent, which however decreased and now stands at 1.55 per barrel in the North-Western market and 2.55 dollars in the South, according to the pricing Agency Argus.
"Urals is still sold at a premium to the benchmark (Brent - ed.) against the background of limited supply. So, the award for party of the Russian varieties in North-West Europe on 23 June was 1.55 per barrel Since the beginning of June, the award was reduced to $ 0.75 due to the low margin of processing in Europe and the worsening of conditions for arbitration of supply. In absolute terms, Urals rose by 7.42 dollar after the Etalon, to 45,06 per barrel", - reported in the review of the Agency.
The ruble in the course of passing the address of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin to the citizens and added a little more than 10 cents against the U.S. currency, while the growth of oil prices slowed somewhat, according to data from the Moscow exchange.
The dollar calculations "tomorrow" to 17.58 GMT is reduced by 37 cents, to 68,65 ruble. Before the start of the statements of the President of the Russian Federation, the ruble had gained 34 kopecks against the dollar, then the dollar has lost 47 cents, sinking to 68,55 ruble.
Oil prices Monday morning show a negative trend amid lingering concerns over the recovery of demand, according to the auction.
As of 7.57 GMT the price of August futures for North sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell by 0.26% to 42.09 USD per barrel. August futures for WTI crude oil depreciated by 0.48% to 39.66 USD per barrel.
World oil prices rise on Friday afternoon on average by 2.5%, markets digest the results of the meeting of OPEC , which supports expectations for the balance of supply and demand of oil, according to the auction.
As at 13.23 GMT the price of August futures for North sea petroleum mix of mark Brent has grown on 2,24% - to 42,44 dollars per barrel. July futures on WTI rose in price by 2.83% to 39,94 USD per barrel. In the morning, oil rose in price by about 1%, and the day growth of quotations reached 3% or more. Since the beginning of the week oil quotations grew on average by almost 10%.
Expert of the national energy security Fund Stanislav Mitrakhovich commented on the price hike of petrol Ron 95, the price of which Saint-Petersburg international commodity-a raw stock exchange has reached at 56.7 thousand rubles per ton.
In an interview with "Evening Moscow", he noted that in Russia as anti-crisis measures temporarily imposed a ban on imports of gasoline, diesel fuel, kerosene, marine fuel and gas oil that would be cheaper than domestic fuel.
Uncertainty about oil demand in the world in the third quarter of this year increases the growth risk of a new wave of the spread of coronavirus, told RIA Novosti researcher on energy issues of the European analytical centre CEPS Irina Kustova.
Earlier, OPEC in its June report predicted that demand for oil in the world will decrease by 6.4 million barrels per day in the second half of the year compared with a decline of 11.9 million barrels per day in the first half of 2020.
Ministry of natural resources has asked the Ministry and the government with a proposal for a systematic support of oil service companies, the Agency is also ready to take part in the creation of conditions for the formation of the Fund unfinished oil wells with the use of domestic technologies and equipment, said in an interview with RIA Novosti, the head of MPR Dmitry Kobylkin.
"Stable and well-developed oil services sector – the key to efficient development of oil and gas resources. So, of course, we support this initiative. For its part the Ministry of environment asked the Ministry and the government with a proposal for a system support companies providing a broad range of exploration services," said Kobylkin on the question of the establishment of the Fund pending wells to support the oil services industry of the Russian Federation.
Oil prices decline on Monday by 2-3% due to concerns about slow demand growth for raw materials, intensified against the background of growth in the number infected with the coronavirus in the United States, according to the auction.
As at 7.47 GMT the price of August futures for North sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell by 2.3% to 37,85 dollars per barrel. July futures on WTI oil depreciated by 3.34% to 35.05 USD per barrel.
The dollar by the end of the current year will fall to 66 rubles, with this exchange rate and the average annual price of oil in 50 dollars for barrel the budget deficit of Russia will be in 2020 at 5% of GDP, said in an interview with RIA Novosti General Director of rating Agency "Expert RA" Sergey Tishchenko.
The last time the dollar was trading around 66 rubles at the beginning of March this year. However, after the collapse of OPEC transactions and statements of a number of countries of the former Alliance on plans to increase production at rapidly falling demand due to the coronavirus began a steep dive in oil prices. The ruble is not stand the pressure and began to weaken: the value of the dollar in the second half of March has jumped to above 80 rubles.
Raising the minimum wage in Russia up to 30 thousand rubles a month will lead to higher prices, loss of jobs, may encourage employers to "play" with the salary, said the rector of the Financial University under the government of the Russian Federation Alexander Safonov.
Earlier in his Telegram-the leader of LDPR Vladimir Zhirinovsky suggested to set the minimum salary in Russia in the amount of 30 thousand rubles per month, the average in the amount of 70 thousand rubles. Also, according to him, the maximum salary in the country should amount to 500 thousand rubles per month.
Oil prices on Friday afternoon moved to growth after the fall on Thursday at 7-8% due to concerns over demand for raw materials and global volatility that gripped the markets, according to the auction.
As at 13.11 GMT the price of August futures for North sea petroleum mix of mark Brent have grown on 1,01%, to 38,94 USD per barrel
The ruble on Thursday evening before the long weekend has accelerated the decline in the dollar and the Euro after the collapse of the oil market by more than 7%, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
The dollar at 21.21 GMT Thursday grew by 1.55 ruble and reached 70,05 of the ruble. This maximum value may 29. The Euro exchange rate increased by 1.37 ruble — to 79,30 of the ruble.
The government of Saudi Arabia has called all the major oil producers that do not participate in the transaction of OPEC , to take part in the stabilization of the market of hydrocarbons, said the report on the results of the weekly meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers on the social network Twitter.
The Saudi government indicated that the last meeting of OPEC Ministers and the producer countries of OPEC reaffirmed "the continuing commitment of countries to the desire to achieve stability of the market in such a way that would meet everyone's interests and would guarantee security of supply for consumers."
The new oil Minister of Iraq Ihsan Abd al-Jabbar during a telephone conversation with Minister of energy of Saudi Arabia Abdulaziz bin Salman reiterated the commitment of the Baghdad agreements on the reduction of oil production during June-July and beyond, it is told in received RIA Novosti news Agency the statement a press-services of the Ministry of Iraq.
The Ministers discussed strengthening bilateral relations and cooperation in mutual interest to their fields.
The price of Russian Urals oil at the end of trading Friday in North-West Europe rose by 3.44 per dollar, reaching 42.55 USD per barrel, reported RIA Novosti in the international price Agency Argus.
"At the end of trading Friday the price of Urals in Northwest Europe rose to 42.55 USD per barrel", - said the Agency. While on Thursday the cost of stamps in the region were 39,11 per barrel.
The volume of the national welfare Fund of Russia (NWF) may, as of June 1, declined in rubles by 245 billion, to 12,161 trillion rubles and in dollars grew by 3.5 billion – to 171,889 billion, said the Ministry of Finance.
"As of June 1, 2020 the volume of NWF was 12 161 482,2 million rubles, or 10.7% of GDP projected for the year 2020", - stated in the message. This is equivalent to 171 888,9 million dollars. The volume of liquid Fund assets (balances with the Central Bank) amounted to the equivalent of 8,205 trillion rubles, or 7.2% projected for the current year GDP, which is equivalent 115,969 billion dollars.
Futures price of WTI rose above $ 40 a barrel for the first time since March 6, according to the auction.
As at 1.17 GMT July futures on WTI rose in price by 2,70%, to 40.00 dollars.
The Saudi state company Saudi Aramco raised prices on oil supplies in July, reports Bloomberg referring to him with the price list of the company.
Previously, Saudi Aramco has postponed the announcement of the July prices for its oil until the resurrection, awaiting the outcome of OPEC meeting .
The solution to overcome the reduction of oil production reached in the framework of OPEC, will serve to further stabilize the market, says the Senator Oleg Morozov.
In April, OPEC agreed to cut oil production to 9.7 million barrels per day in may-June, 7.7 million in the second half of the year and 5.8 million next until the end of April 2022. Base count taken October 2018, but for Russia and Saudi Arabia taken 11 million barrels per day, from which by analogy with all is a decrease of 23%, 18% and 14% respectively. On Saturday, OPEC agreed to extend the current reduction of oil production to 9.7 million barrels per day by the end of July.
OPEC extended the reduction of oil production to 9.7 million barrels per day in July, said the head of Ministry Alexander Novak.
According to the Minister, the decision was made to strengthen the impact of the deal reached in mid-April.
Joint action by OPEC has allowed to avoid serious consequences of the significant drop in oil demand in history, said the Minister of energy of Russia Alexander Novak.
"I would like to Express my gratitude to all the participants of the Ministerial meeting of OPEC, held on 9 and 12 April this year, for the constructive decisions that have been taken for the joint action, which allowed us to avoid serious consequences today, the most significant in the history of the decline in demand on the world oil market", - said Novak.
OPEC decided to maintain the current level of oil production until the end of July, reported RIA Novosti a source in the organization.
"OPEC approved the extension of the reduction to 9.7 million barrels per day for a month," he said.
The country's agreement to reduce oil production by OPEC on Saturday will hold its first since the inception of the new arrangements Ministerial meeting, and although it was previously assumed that the correction transaction will be considered in December, 6 June, the Ministers are going to raise this issue in the framework of the planned conference.
Since early may, came into force a new agreement on the reduction of oil production by OPEC during the crisis due to pandemic coronavirus, lower oil prices and falling oil demand with more than 100 million barrels per day to 70-80 million barrels a day.
CBR will continue to sell the currency on the market in accordance with the budget rule and on the basis of instructions of the Ministry of Finance, and will return to buy when the conditions are appropriate, said the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina during a regular press conference on Friday.
The Bank of Russia makes foreign exchange transactions on behalf of the Ministry of Finance: the budget rule in the oil price above the upper limit cut-off (in 2020 is at 42.4 per barrel) the additional revenues of the budget is allocated for purchase of foreign currency and translated into the Bank accounts of Russia for the subsequent transfer to FNB. In cases when the price of oil is below a prescribed rule level
The increase in world oil prices accelerated to 3% on Friday afternoon in anticipation of Saturday's OPEC meeting and possible solutions to reduce production, according to the auction.
As at 13.46 GMT the price of August futures for North sea petroleum mix of mark Brent grew by 3% to 41.18 per barrel, the July futures for WTI - by 2.38%, to 38.3 per barrel. On the morning of Friday the rise in oil prices did not exceed 0.5%.
The world prices for oil on Friday grow, investors are expecting new information about the dates of the meeting of the representatives of the countries of the OPEC deal , according to the auction.
As at 7.45 GMT the price of August futures for North sea petroleum mix of mark Brent has grown on 0,55% - to 40,21 per barrel. July futures on WTI rose in price on 0,24% - to 37.5 per barrel.
Moscow says the stabilization on the world markets of energy resources, the Minister of energy of Russia Alexander Novak is in constant contact for the development of the situation with their colleagues from other countries, said the press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov.
"In General, we observe a stabilization on the international energy markets. And again, Novak is in contact with its partners, all the rest of some announcements we do not believe it is now possible," he added.
Director for analysis of financial markets and macroeconomics UK "Alfa-Capital" Vladimir Bragin questioned the realism of the prognosis for growth of the dollar to 90 rubles, the opinion he expressed in an interview with RBC.
Previously, the Center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting (CMASF) published a forecast that the dollar may rise to 90 rubles in the case that the world will begin a second outbreak of the coronavirus and the authorities will again have to enter the appropriate constraints.
The head of VTB Andrey Kostin not surprised by the rapid recovery of the ruble, he believes that the dollar should cost no more than 70 rubles.
"No, because we always talked about the fact that our ruble to a certain extent undervalued. But the oil situation has really dealt a serious blow, but in General the Russian economy after all, has considerable reserve, and the macroeconomic indicators are unique," said Kostin in an interview to Business FM, answering a question, it is not surprising if his "rapid recovery of oil and especially of the ruble".
Countries which have concluded a deal OPEC and discuss two options for extending the reduction of oil production, reported RIA Novosti source in one of the delegations.
He said that the decision on the date of the next OPEC meeting is not yet adopted.
The price of Brent crude oil rose above $ 40 for the first time since March 6, when the collapse of quotations, according to the auction.
As 03.44 GMT the price of August futures for North sea oil mixture Brent grew by 1.14% to 40.08 USD per barrel. July futures on WTI as at 03.46 GMT rose in price on 1,96%, to NOK 37.53 per barrel.
In the evening the ruble rises against dollar and Euro on the background of increasing oil prices.
The dollar calculations "tomorrow" at 20.50 MSK decreased by 34 kopecks and reached 68,78 of the ruble, Euro — by 15 kopecks, to the level 76.8 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange. Earlier Tuesday, the dollar and the Euro has updated the lows of March 6.
World oil prices on Tuesday morning are rising in the hope of extending the existing limitations on oil production by OPEC , according to the auction.
As of 7.49 GMT the price of August futures for North sea petroleum mix of mark Brent has grown on 0,86% - to 38,65 dollars per barrel. July futures on WTI rose in price by 0.56% to 35.64 percent.
A temporary ban on the import into Russia of gasoline, diesel fuel, kerosene, marine fuels and gas oil entered into force on 2 June, a decision the government made on 25 may.
Restrictions imposed prior to October 1, but if necessary, the relevant agencies may until 15 June to make a decision about change of term of its action.
Prize of the Russian oil brand Urals to the price of North sea Brent reached a record for the entire history of observations since 1990: 2.3 per dollar in North-West Europe and 2.8 per dollar in southern Europe, according to international pricing Agency Argus.
"The price of "Urals" have reached record premiums to North sea benchmark in the history of the Argus monitoring since 1990. Support cost varieties had a significant reduction of production in Russia in terms of recovery of oil demand in the world market due to the weakening of quarantine measures," - said the Agency.
The average price of oil Urals, the basic goods of the Russian export in may increased by 70 percent compared to April, the Finance Ministry said.
The cost of raw materials made up of 31.03 per barrel.
The presidents of Russia and USA Vladimir Putin and Donald trump, discussed during a telephone conversation the oil market and the OPEC agreement , stated that it seeks to restore demand and stabilize prices, said the press service of the Kremlin.
"Reviewed the situation on the world oil market in the context of the implementation of the agreement of OPEC . It was noted that this multilateral agreement reached with the active support of the presidents of Russia and the United States, leads to a gradual recovery in oil demand and stabilize prices", - stated in the message.
The Russian stock market and ruble on Monday will grow by the improvement of the external background and the return of demand for risky assets, analysts said.
The weakening of the dollar on the international Forex market will also contribute to the strengthening of the domestic currency, experts believe.
OPEC is considering extending the existing cuts oil production for one to three months, according to the Agency Bloomberg with reference to one of the delegates to the upcoming June meeting of OPEC .
"OPEC will discuss the extension of the Treaty on the reduction of oil production", - stated in the message.
World oil prices on Friday morning fall after the publication of statistics about the unexpected growth of stocks of raw materials in the United States, according to the auction.
As at 7.43 MSK the price of August futures for North sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell by 1.03% to 35,65 USD per barrel. July futures on WTI oil depreciated by 1.57% - to 33.18 per barrel.