Expected on 24 July, the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank will have little impact on the exchange rate, however, the comments of the regulator on the prospects for monetary policy will be the main reference point for exchange rate dynamics, according to respondents RIA Novosti experts.
At the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia July 24, we expect another reduction of the key rate from the current 4.5% per annum, to which the indicator came last June - a meeting of the Board of Directors. Then the rate was reduced from 1 percentage point for the first time in five years to a historic low.
An economist and leading researcher of Moscow state University Andrey Kolganov in an interview with channel "360" praised the idea of holding the denomination of the ruble and spoke about its possible negative effect.
In his opinion, without calculations it is difficult to assess whether some use the denomination or not, but if you change the scale of prices a hundred times, they may be rounding up. This, he said, will lead to a slight price increase.
Russia for several years already more or less adapted to the sanctions, therefore, the risks of a second wave of coronavirus and new quarantine measures are more dangerous to the ruble than the possible new Western sanctions against Russia, believe polled by RIA Novosti experts.
Currently the exchange rate is affected by several factors: oil prices, output non-residents of the OFZ, coronavirus and possible sanctions because of the "Nord stream -2", says head of personal brokerage services "BCS" Sergei Kuchin.
The ruble recovered to the level of the beginning of March, however, the strengthening of the national currency is unlikely to last long, according to respondents RBC economists.
Among the reasons for the growth of the ruble, the experts noted the rebound in oil prices, consistent fiscal policy, the confidence of domestic holders of ruble assets and the resumption of activity in major markets in the world.